Hampered Hampton

I’ve been really bogged down with exams lately (right now I’m taking a break from studying for a biochem exam), but I’ve been keeping an eye on the Braves as they get Spring Training underway. It looks like Mike Hampton is working his way back, but who knows where he’ll be in a few months. Braves fans haven’t seen him for 2 years now, although I saw him in the players parking lot last summer while I was waiting for autographs from other players. At the time, a few fans asked Hampton to come over and sign, but his arm was in some kind of sling device and most of the kids under 10 years old had no clue who he was.

So far, there are indications that Hampton’s arm is holding up well, and he seems to have recovered from his little leg injury in Mexico over the winter. But even if he stays healthy the whole year, his pitching arm won’t be ready for 150+ innings, and he probably will need at least 50 of those innings to get any kind of grasp on locating his pitches or refining his mechanics. I think the Braves would like to be able to pencil Hampton in as the #4 starter for most of the season, but they realize that the pencil they use will need to be accompanied with a large eraser at times, and they should probably have multiple options to replace Hampton at any given moment. On the other hand, last season the Braves brought in Mark Redman to throw batting practice for opposing teams, so you gotta’ believe that even if Hampton struggles he’ll be more productive than Redman.

My prediction: Hampton struggles through mid-June, has a few injury concerns, and then puts together a nice string of outings after the All-Star break. By the end of August Hampton will begin to feel the effects of his 2 year DL stint, and will struggle to contribute during a tight play-off race. The Braves will fall apart in September due to too many old arms and not enough pitching depth, and Hampton will finish with a 8-9 record, a 4.75 ERA, and ultimately be signed to a 2 year deal for about $8 million by one of the AL Central teams (maybe the Rangers or the Royals). Meanwhile, the Braves will entomb John Smoltz in carbonite ala Han Solo, and will forever be on display at Turner Field until the Braves finally reach another World Series, at which time Smoltz will be thawed out to start Game 1.

Ok, so the part about Smoltz was unnecessary, but I think my predictions about Hampton are mostly reasonable, which makes him a solid #5 pitcher for 2008, and even a good #4 or #3 at times.