2008 Starting Pitching — Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew

Though the Braves have been known in the recent past for their ability to draft and develop outstanding young talent, it’s actually been a while since a decent pitching prospect has come through the system. Sure we’ve had Chuck James and Kyle Davies, but neither one will ever be more than a solid #3 starter, and before Adam Wainwright had time to develop into a full time major league talent we traded him away. Off the top of my head I’m having a hard time coming up with more than 5 above average pitchers that were a product of the Braves farm system, and that’s if you count John Smoltz even though he was actually in the Tigers’ organization for most of his minor league career.

1. John Smoltz

2. Tom Glavine

3. Steve Avery

4. Kevin Millwood

5. Jason Marquis, Jason Schmidt or Odalis Perez depending on how you look at it

Really, Kevin Millwood, Steve Avery and Jason Marquis/Jason Schmidt/Odalis Perez aren’t exactly considered top-tier talent, and barely qualify as above average talent. They’ve all had their moments in the sun, but none of them will ever compare to Smoltz or Glavine, and I think it’s interesting to note that despite a prestigious reputation, the Braves have shown little ability to develop pitching talent. With Leo Mazzone at the helm preaching his groundball inducing down-and-away philosophy for so long, and with such a high rate of success in the majors, it would only seem reasonable that the same philosophy would work well at the minor league level. I’m not sure if you can blame it on poor drafting or poor coaching, or maybe a mix of the two, but somewhere along the way the Braves pitching development system broke down, and the Braves are now stuck with very little depth and very few quality prospects on the horizon. I think it has a lot to do with minor league coaches ineffectively teaching pitchers to keep the ball low in the zone, resulting in high fly ball rates and a lot of home runs, which is exactly the problem that has plagued Chuck James and Kyle Davies as of late. The problem could stem from poor mechanics to poor pitching sequences and would be a great topic for analysis, but until it’s fixed the Braves are going to have a very difficult time repeating the success they had in the 1990’s.

Anyways, the best current pitching prospects in the Braves system are Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew. Both of them spent some time pitching in the majors in 2007, but Lerew suffered a season ending injury in May and Reyes pitched a very tough 51 innings for the Braves, allowing 9 home runs and carrying a 6.22 ERA while walking 30 and striking out only 27. To say that both pitchers had a disappointing season would be an understatement, and hopefully one of them will be more productive in 2008, if not both of them. After looking at their minor league stats and some recent comparable pitchers, I think that Reyes and Lerew could both prove to be very reliable pitchers at the major league level, but they first might have to suffer through some difficult times.

James Shields was the only pitcher that wasn’t 22 years old while at AA, but he otherwise compares well to Lerew, while Reyes compares well to Gorzelanny and Pelfrey. Though these aren’t bad players to be associated with, there is every indication that Reyes and Lerew will both be somewhat ineffective to average pitchers until they reach the age of 25 years old, or maybe even later. Shields and Gorzelanny have recently had great success with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh respectively, but they each had to make it through a year or more of rough outings. Pelfrey also endured a very rough first full year in the majors recently, and it might take another year before he can put it all together and put up some solid numbers. If Lerew makes a successful comeback this year, I think he might be able to keep his ERA around 4.50 and maybe drop it below 4.00 in 2009. By 2011 he could be capable of an ERA of 3.50 and 15+ wins, but he’ll never have the skill level necessary to be a consistent #1 starter. Reyes could match Gorzelanny’s success in the next 2 years, and could possibly develop into a great #2 starter by the time he turns 25. I’m a little bit hesitant to say whether he’ll ever become a reliable #1 starter, but I think he certainly has the potential to do so once he reaches 27 or 28 years old. For 2008 I’d put his numbers at about a 4.25 ERA and a chance at 10 wins if he can stick at the #5 spot in the rotation.

Of the two pitchers, Reyes is the most talented, and Lerew is the most questionable. While I would like to see Lerew come back and show considerable progress, I think that the Braves have to be prepared for him to make very little progress in 2008. That leaves Reyes and Jair Jurrjens as the best candidates for the #5 spot, and I think they’ll both have plenty of chances to prove their worth. Unfortunately, if Jurrjens or Reyes fails to develop over the next few years the Braves may have very few alternatives to turn to in their farm system. The Braves best chance at acquiring a young #1 caliber pitcher is probably through a free agent signing, and I hope that they have their sights set on a few guys like C.C. Sabathia or Scott Kazmir. But for now we’ll just have to wait and see how pitchers like Jo Jo Reyes pan out and hope that experience at the major league level will help them hone and refine their skills before the John Smoltz and Tom Glavine era is officially over.