Hampered Hampton

I’ve been really bogged down with exams lately (right now I’m taking a break from studying for a biochem exam), but I’ve been keeping an eye on the Braves as they get Spring Training underway. It looks like Mike Hampton is working his way back, but who knows where he’ll be in a few months. Braves fans haven’t seen him for 2 years now, although I saw him in the players parking lot last summer while I was waiting for autographs from other players. At the time, a few fans asked Hampton to come over and sign, but his arm was in some kind of sling device and most of the kids under 10 years old had no clue who he was.

So far, there are indications that Hampton’s arm is holding up well, and he seems to have recovered from his little leg injury in Mexico over the winter. But even if he stays healthy the whole year, his pitching arm won’t be ready for 150+ innings, and he probably will need at least 50 of those innings to get any kind of grasp on locating his pitches or refining his mechanics. I think the Braves would like to be able to pencil Hampton in as the #4 starter for most of the season, but they realize that the pencil they use will need to be accompanied with a large eraser at times, and they should probably have multiple options to replace Hampton at any given moment. On the other hand, last season the Braves brought in Mark Redman to throw batting practice for opposing teams, so you gotta’ believe that even if Hampton struggles he’ll be more productive than Redman.

My prediction: Hampton struggles through mid-June, has a few injury concerns, and then puts together a nice string of outings after the All-Star break. By the end of August Hampton will begin to feel the effects of his 2 year DL stint, and will struggle to contribute during a tight play-off race. The Braves will fall apart in September due to too many old arms and not enough pitching depth, and Hampton will finish with a 8-9 record, a 4.75 ERA, and ultimately be signed to a 2 year deal for about $8 million by one of the AL Central teams (maybe the Rangers or the Royals). Meanwhile, the Braves will entomb John Smoltz in carbonite ala Han Solo, and will forever be on display at Turner Field until the Braves finally reach another World Series, at which time Smoltz will be thawed out to start Game 1.

Ok, so the part about Smoltz was unnecessary, but I think my predictions about Hampton are mostly reasonable, which makes him a solid #5 pitcher for 2008, and even a good #4 or #3 at times.

Let’s Look at Jeff Locke

Chop-n-Change recently ran a Q&A with Jeff Locke, one of the Braves top young pitching prospects. After a sub-par first year at rookie ball, Jeff came back last year and posted some fantastic numbers for Danville, raising his ground ball rate from 38% to 55%, and dropping his ERA from 4.22 to 2.66. By his own account he throws a decent fastball, curve, and is working on his change-up.  A mixture of those 3 pitches should help him work his way through the minors, and if he can maintain a K/9 rate of 7+, a BB/9 rate under 2, and a ground ball percentage in the 50% range, then he might make a decent starter for the Braves in a few years.

More Spring Training Advice and Autograph Tips

There’s a lot of information floating around cyberspace about Spring Training and making the most of your experience, so I decided to make a little compilation of different sites you can check out:

Spring Training Reader Tips –

This site is a mix of tips from various fans across the country. You can find information for the best times and places to get autographs and travel tips. The Spring Training Tips homesite has a bunch of information about schedules, teams, weather, and planning your Spring Training trip.

The Ultimate Baseball Collector –

A blog run by Chris Los who knows a lot about getting free baseballs. He has a few posts about through the mail (TTM) Spring Training autographs and which players are the best about signing.

Autographed Baseball Tips –

An especially informative site by Barbara Crew about acquiring and displaying autographed baseballs. I don’t advise spending much money on sending autographed baseballs through the mail, and prefer to get them in person, but Ms. Crew says that she’s had a lot of success so maybe it’ll work for you.

USA Today Spring Training Tips –

Generic tips about all sorts of Spring Training topics. The information is 2 years old, but mostly valid and accurate.

What to Love About Spring Training –

Josh Pahigian has a nice article at the ESPN website highlighting some of the best things about Spring Training. There are also links to ESPN guides to the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues.

These are just a few of the many sites that you can check out to pick up good information about Spring Training. There are plenty more if you’ll just do a quick search on Google or any other search engine, and you can always check out various team forums and ask for advice from other fans. From my experience, the best things to keep in mind are:

-Plan ahead

-Have a pen that works

-Be courteous to other fans and players

-Get to the ballpark early and often

-Don’t be afraid to ask for directions or advice

-Bring your own snacks to the ballpark to save money

-Stay away from large crowds

So there you have it. Good luck with your Spring Training plans and activities!

Spring Training Cat Fight: Mets vs Phillies

If I didn’t have a functioning brain capable of independent thought I would probably believe by now that the Mets or the Phillies were the only 2 teams in the NL East capable of winning a division title. If you went by the drivel coughed up by several national writers that shall remain nameless, you would be under the impression that the Mets were somehow stacked with power and pitching, while the Phillies were destined to repeat an underwhelming division title that came about 2 decades after their most recent division victory.  Sure the Mets managed to reel in Johan Santana, but he only pitches once every 5 days and might post an OPS similar to the ancient Moises Alou.  Their pitching depth beyond Santana is pretty much non-existent, unless good old Pedro Martinez can find his way back onto a baseball field without having to take a DL break every third start.  The same can be said for the Phillies, who will get a solid start from Cole Hamels about once a week, and then they’ll turn the ball over to a few guys whose names I can’t readily remember.  The Phillies do have some good hitters, but they never should have won the division title in 2007, and I don’t think they really qualify as a perennial contender just yet.

What I’m really saying is that after nearly 2 decades of being absolutely dominated by the Braves, the Mets and the Phillies are acting like giddy school girls just because they each took home a division title over the past 2 seasons.  Last time I checked the running tally is something like Mets 1, Phillies 1, Braves 1 million, but if you look around the internet, all you see is headlines about how the Mets have their “swagger” back, and how the Phillies have a “psychological edge”.  Jimmie Rollins recently took a time out from staring at his MVP trophy long enough to guarantee the Phillies a 100 win season, while Carlos Beltran took his eyes off of his man-crush Johan Santana just long enough to tell reporters that his team was the one to beat this year.  I know the Mets are still licking their wounds after a 17 game collapse in September of last year that saw them go from 7 games up on the Phillies to falling out of wild card contention, and the Phillies are trying to convince themselves that lightning can strike twice, but if we want to look at this from a sane perspective, we have to admit that both teams have been about as fear-inspiring as Cookie Monster.  It reminds me of watching George Dubya Bush grinning ear to ear in front of his over-sized “Mission Accomplished” banner.  I’ve got news for ya’ fellas, you’re setting yourselves up for some major embarrassment.  Talk all you want now while the warm Florida breeze is blowing up your skirts, ’cause when this summer rolls around you still gotta’ face Chipper and company before you can even think about which color panties you’ll be wearing in October.

I  wouldn’t be so adamant about all of this if I felt like the Braves were incapable of contending, but they’ll be a better pitching team than last year and they’ll be a better hitting team than last year, and when you stack them up against either the Phillies or the Mets it’s hard to declare anyone a winner so soon.  Bottom line, there is no one team to beat in the NL East.  The Braves aren’t as dominant as they once were, but no one else in the division has stepped up to take their place, and a single division title does not a dynasty make.  Baseball fans the world over can rest assured that the Mets will choke somewhere along the way, and the Phillies will have to scrap and fight for every win they get, not to mention the fact that the Marlins have more World Series titles over the past decade than all the other NL East teams combined.  There are no gimmies in this division, and my advice to both teams would be to quit with your little school yard cat fight, re-do your makeup and get back to practicing baseball.  This country already has enough prima donnas.

Spring Training Autographs Through The Mail

If you’re not one of the lucky few making plans for a trip to Spring Training this year, you can still add some nice autographs to your auto stash using the good old American postal service. It’s a lot cheaper than traveling to Florida or Arizona, and you dramatically increase your odds of getting more than junkie credit card offers in your mailbox over the summer. I listed the addresses to each team’s Spring Training site on my previous post about Spring Training tips, and here is a simple sample letter that I would send to a player requesting an autograph:

Dear Javy Lopez,

As an avid Braves fan I want to say “Welcome back!” I think you’re a great baseball player and I hope you have a great season and you can help the Braves make it back to the playoffs. If you have the time, could you sign a card for me? I would really appreciate it and would love to add your autograph to my collection. Good luck this year and thanks for taking the time to read my letter!

Sincerely,

Adam G.

You don’t need to write anything really elaborate, and you should definitely not ask the player to go out of his way to send you used balls, gloves, socks or anything else like that. Be polite, keep it short and simple, and personalize it just enough to let the player know that you actually know something about them.

When you send your letter, be sure to include a self-addressed stamped envelope, a card to be signed, and of course the letter you wrote. There’s always a chance that the player won’t respond, so it’s probably a good idea to send an inexpensive card to get signed, maybe something in the $0.25-0.50 range. Also, don’t be surprised if a popular player doesn’t respond or if you get a generic team letter politely declining an autograph due to excessive demands. Your best shot at an autograph is from a young player, or a lesser known starter.

Once you send off your letter, don’t get too impatient. I’ve heard of fans receiving autographs up to a year later, so even if a player doesn’t respond right away there’s always hope that one day they will.

Here’s just a few of the players that I got autographs from through the mail this past year:

Chuck James

Kyle Davies

Chase Utley

Zach Duke

Ryan Church

And here are some players I never heard back from:

Brian McCann

Andruw Jones

Greg Maddux

All total, I think I spent about $25 on my through-the-mail autographs and received 10 or 12 autographs. It didn’t take much effort and I was pretty happy with what I got. Though I’d rather be spending my spring down in sunny Florida getting autographs in person, through-the-mail autographs is a nice alternative when a fun road trip to Spring Training isn’t possible.

Jeff Francoeur is Country Strong

David O’Brien with the Atlanta Journal Constitution is reporting that Jeff Francoeur spent the off-season adding 17 pounds of solid muscle, resulting in a “ripped” physique and a “country strong” body as Mark Kotsay so eloquently put it. Frenchy’s bio in the Braves game programs will now officially read:

Jeff Francoeur

6′4″ and 239 pounds of lean, grade A country strong meat

 

A lot of people with considerable knowledge about player development trends are saying some great things about Frenchy and he has even been tabbed as the top breakout candidate for 2008 by Baseball Prospectus. Jeff is a fantastic ball player and one of the most fan-friendly guys you’ll ever meet, so I hope he has a huge season this year and puts up some big-time numbers. It might seem a little too optimistic, but I feel a .300/30 home run season coming. Good luck Jeff!

2008 Starting Pitching — Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew

Though the Braves have been known in the recent past for their ability to draft and develop outstanding young talent, it’s actually been a while since a decent pitching prospect has come through the system. Sure we’ve had Chuck James and Kyle Davies, but neither one will ever be more than a solid #3 starter, and before Adam Wainwright had time to develop into a full time major league talent we traded him away. Off the top of my head I’m having a hard time coming up with more than 5 above average pitchers that were a product of the Braves farm system, and that’s if you count John Smoltz even though he was actually in the Tigers’ organization for most of his minor league career.

1. John Smoltz

2. Tom Glavine

3. Steve Avery

4. Kevin Millwood

5. Jason Marquis, Jason Schmidt or Odalis Perez depending on how you look at it

Really, Kevin Millwood, Steve Avery and Jason Marquis/Jason Schmidt/Odalis Perez aren’t exactly considered top-tier talent, and barely qualify as above average talent. They’ve all had their moments in the sun, but none of them will ever compare to Smoltz or Glavine, and I think it’s interesting to note that despite a prestigious reputation, the Braves have shown little ability to develop pitching talent. With Leo Mazzone at the helm preaching his groundball inducing down-and-away philosophy for so long, and with such a high rate of success in the majors, it would only seem reasonable that the same philosophy would work well at the minor league level. I’m not sure if you can blame it on poor drafting or poor coaching, or maybe a mix of the two, but somewhere along the way the Braves pitching development system broke down, and the Braves are now stuck with very little depth and very few quality prospects on the horizon. I think it has a lot to do with minor league coaches ineffectively teaching pitchers to keep the ball low in the zone, resulting in high fly ball rates and a lot of home runs, which is exactly the problem that has plagued Chuck James and Kyle Davies as of late. The problem could stem from poor mechanics to poor pitching sequences and would be a great topic for analysis, but until it’s fixed the Braves are going to have a very difficult time repeating the success they had in the 1990’s.

Anyways, the best current pitching prospects in the Braves system are Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew. Both of them spent some time pitching in the majors in 2007, but Lerew suffered a season ending injury in May and Reyes pitched a very tough 51 innings for the Braves, allowing 9 home runs and carrying a 6.22 ERA while walking 30 and striking out only 27. To say that both pitchers had a disappointing season would be an understatement, and hopefully one of them will be more productive in 2008, if not both of them. After looking at their minor league stats and some recent comparable pitchers, I think that Reyes and Lerew could both prove to be very reliable pitchers at the major league level, but they first might have to suffer through some difficult times.

James Shields was the only pitcher that wasn’t 22 years old while at AA, but he otherwise compares well to Lerew, while Reyes compares well to Gorzelanny and Pelfrey. Though these aren’t bad players to be associated with, there is every indication that Reyes and Lerew will both be somewhat ineffective to average pitchers until they reach the age of 25 years old, or maybe even later. Shields and Gorzelanny have recently had great success with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh respectively, but they each had to make it through a year or more of rough outings. Pelfrey also endured a very rough first full year in the majors recently, and it might take another year before he can put it all together and put up some solid numbers. If Lerew makes a successful comeback this year, I think he might be able to keep his ERA around 4.50 and maybe drop it below 4.00 in 2009. By 2011 he could be capable of an ERA of 3.50 and 15+ wins, but he’ll never have the skill level necessary to be a consistent #1 starter. Reyes could match Gorzelanny’s success in the next 2 years, and could possibly develop into a great #2 starter by the time he turns 25. I’m a little bit hesitant to say whether he’ll ever become a reliable #1 starter, but I think he certainly has the potential to do so once he reaches 27 or 28 years old. For 2008 I’d put his numbers at about a 4.25 ERA and a chance at 10 wins if he can stick at the #5 spot in the rotation.

Of the two pitchers, Reyes is the most talented, and Lerew is the most questionable. While I would like to see Lerew come back and show considerable progress, I think that the Braves have to be prepared for him to make very little progress in 2008. That leaves Reyes and Jair Jurrjens as the best candidates for the #5 spot, and I think they’ll both have plenty of chances to prove their worth. Unfortunately, if Jurrjens or Reyes fails to develop over the next few years the Braves may have very few alternatives to turn to in their farm system. The Braves best chance at acquiring a young #1 caliber pitcher is probably through a free agent signing, and I hope that they have their sights set on a few guys like C.C. Sabathia or Scott Kazmir. But for now we’ll just have to wait and see how pitchers like Jo Jo Reyes pan out and hope that experience at the major league level will help them hone and refine their skills before the John Smoltz and Tom Glavine era is officially over.

A Few More Spring Training Autograph Tips

After posting my top 10 tips for spring Training, I thought of a few more things that might be helpful to know.

1. This is really supposed to be a big secret, but I’m telling you anyways: Go see the Yankees BEFORE position players report. Guys like Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez usually report a little bit early and take batting practice on side fields during pitchers and catchers camp. The crowds are very small and the players are much more relaxed and willing to sign autographs.

2. The Tampa Bay Rays should be on your list of teams to go see and get autographs from. They have some of the premier young talent in baseball right now and in 3 to 5 years you’ll kick yourself if you don’t take the time to go see them before they all turn into superstars. Get a seat out in the right field grass and get autographs from pitchers in the bull pen (Scott Kazmir, David Price, Jason Shields, Matt Garza, Wade Davis, Jacob McGee just to name a few) and then after the 1st or 2nd inning go wait outside the stadium as starting position players start to trickle out. You might be one of 10 to 15 fans waiting for autographs and you can easily pick up an auto from Carlos Pena, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria, or anybody else that plays for the Rays.

3. If you have a girlfriend, wife, or young child with you, bribe them into getting autographs for you. My wife got probably twice as many autographs and pictures with players as I did simply because she’s a young, attractive woman. Ball players don’t care about grown men, but they’re very willing to sign for a cute kid or a nice looking female. I told my wife that for every 10 solid autographs she got I’d buy her something at the mall, and of course she had all the motivation she needed and even did some homework on which players had the most sought after autographs.

4 . Buy your baseballs before you go down to Florida. Once fans start showing up by the thousands it’s very difficult to find mass quantities of baseballs to take to games and practices. Also, if you’re not too shy to ask 9 or 10 times a day, you can get a nice stash of practice balls from players and coaches, and of course those are much cooler for autographs than balls you might buy from Wal-Mart. All you have to do is hang out along a fence during a bullpen session or while guys are throwing in the outfield and as they go to sit down just ask politely for a ball. I traded one bullpen coach a pudding snack for a ball and he seemed to think it was a great trade!

5. If you don’t plan on going down to Spring Training, you can still send in cards to each teams stadium and get autographs through the mail. It’s pretty easy to write a short note asking a player to kindly sign a card for you and then you just put a stamp on it and drop it in the mail. Here’s a list of addresses in case you need them:

Atlanta Braves
Cracker Jack Stadium (formerly Disney’s Wide World of Sports)
700 South Victory Way
Kissimmee, FL, 34747

Baltimore Orioles
Ft. Lauderdale Stadium
1301 NW 55th Street
Ft. Lauderdale, FL 33309

Boston Red Sox
City of Palms Park
2201 Edison Ave
Ft. Meyers, FL, 33901

Cincinnati Reds
Ed Smith Stadium
2700 12th Street
Sarasota, FL, 34237-3000

Cleveland Indians
Chain of Lakes Park
500 Cletus Allen Drive
Winterhaven, FL, 33880

Detroit Tigers
Joker Merchant Stadium
c/o Tiger Town
2301 Lakeland Hills Blvd
Lakeland, FL, 33804

Florida Marlins
Roger Dean Stadium
4751 Main Street
Jupiter, FL, 33458

Houston Astros
Osceola County Stadium
631 Heritage Park Way
Kissimmee, FL, 34744

Practices are held at
1000 Bill Beck Boulevard
Kissimmee, FL, 34744

Los Angeles Dodgers
Holman Stadium
P.O. Box 2887
or 4001 26th Street
Vero Beach, FL, 32961-2887

Minnesota Twins
Hammond Stadium
14100 Six Mile Cypress Parkway
Ft. Meyers, FL. 33912

New York Mets
Traditions Field
St. Lucie County Sports Complex
525 N.W. Peacock Boulevard
Port St. Lucie, FL, 34986

New York Yankees
Legends Field
1 Steinbrenner Drive
Tampa, FL, 33614

Philadelphia Phillies
Bright House Networks Field
601 Old Coachman Rd,
Clearwater, FL, 33765

Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
McKechnie Field
17th Avenue West and Ninth Street West
Bradenton, FL, 34205

St. Louis Cardinals
Rodger Dean Stadium
4751 Main Street
Jupiter, FL, 33458

Tampa Bay Rays
Progress Energy Park
180 2nd Avenue SE
St. Petersburg, FL, 33701

Toronto Blue Jays
Practices at the Bobby Mattick Training Center
1700 Solon Ave
Dunedin, FL, 34698-4124

In March at Dunedin Stadium at Grant Field
311 Douglas Ave
Dunedin, FL, 34697

Washington Nationals
Space Coast Stadium
5800 Stadium Parkway
Melbourne, FL, 32940

CACTUS LEAGUE

Arizona Diamondbacks
Tucson Electric Park
2500 E. Ajo Way
Tucson, AZ, 85713

Chicago Cubs
HoHoKam Park
1235 North Center Street
Mesa, AZ, 85201

Chicago White Sox
Tucson Electric Park
2500 E. Ajo Way
Tucson, AZ, 85713

Colorado Rockies
Hi Corbett Field
3400 E. Camino Campestre
Tucson, AZ, 85716

Kansas City Royals
Surprise Stadium
15960 N. Bullard Ave
Surprise, AZ, 85374-8842

Los Angeles Angels
Temple Diablo Stadium
2200 West Alameda Drive
Tempe, AZ, 85282

Milwaukee Brewers
Maryvale Baseball Park
3600 N. 51st Ave.
Phoenix, AZ, 85031

Oakland Athletics
Phoenix Municipal Stadium
5999 East Van Buren Street
Phoenix, AZ, 85008

San Diego Padres
Peoria Stadium
16101 North 83rd Avenue
Peoria, AZ, 85382

Peoria Sports Complex (training)
1601 West Paradise Lane
Peoria, AZ, 85382

San Francisco Giants
Scottsdale Stadium
7408 E. Osborn Rd.
Scottsdale, AZ, 85251

Seattle Mariners
Peoria Stadium
16101 N. 83rd Ave
Peoria, AZ, 85382

Texas Rangers
Surprise Stadium
15850 North Bullard Ave
Surprise, AZ, 85374-8842

Top 10 Spring Training Tips

Well, I intended to write about Jo Jo Reyes and Anthony Lerew as I continued my breakdown of the Braves starting pitching, but school has kept me extremely busy and I haven’t been able to get much baseball related stuff done. But I promise to get around to it soon!

Anyways, just in case any of you are making plans to head down to Spring Training, I thought I would give you some tips and advice from my experiences.

1. If you want autographs at the Braves Disney Complex, then hang out at the fence behind the left field wall. There’s a gate that opens up to a pathway that goes to some batting cages, and a lot of players will stop and sign autographs or chat on their way to the cages. Or you can wait until the end of practice and the players will sign along the first base side seats. On a good day you can get anywhere from 10 to 25 autographs in just a few hours if you know what you’re doing.

2. Enjoy the weather, but don’t forget your sunscreen! If you’re like me, you’ve spent most of the winter out of the sun and trapped under flourescent lights, and your skin will be shocked by the intensity of the Florida sun. Give it about 30 minutes, and you’ll be well on your way to a nice, deep sunburn.

3. Do your homework! Print out a roster from the Braves official website (or other teams you are interested in) and check out which minor league players will be in camp. A lot of fans miss out on some great autographs from younger players simply because they didn’t take a few minutes to figure out the names for all the new faces.

4. Organize your cards and decide how many autographed balls you want to get. Keep a notebook with all your cards ordered by team and player so that you can get to the card you want quickly. Sometimes you’ll only have a few moments to pull the right card before a player walks away. Also, have a way to carry your baseballs that allows you to get to them quickly, but also keeps them protected. I like to use a draw string bag.

5. Use sharpies for cards and pens for baseballs. If you get a ball signed with a sharpie marker, it will turn an ugly brown/yellow in a few weeks, whereas a nice pen autograph will last for a very long time. Conversely, use sharpies on cards and not pens. There are lots of different colors when it comes to selecting which sharpie to use, so choose the color that wil look best against the colors on your card. Use light on dark, and dark on light. Also, keep your autographs out of the light, or else they will fade.

6. Check game schedules and plan accordingly. Several ballparks in Florida are in the same city, while most are only a couple of hours apart, and you can hit up multiple parks quickly. This is both a good and a bad thing for fans. If you want to watch a popular team like the Yankees, then you’ll have to fight the massive crowds that follow such teams all over Florida, but you can also see multiple games in a day so that’s a plus. If you’re interested in seeing a particular team and want to avoid large crowds, plan to see a game against a less popular team.

7. Bring a swimsuit. What good is a trip to Florida if you don’t hit up the beach a few times?

8. Don’t be afraid to ask other fans and park employees for tips. Most people will be nice about it and will let you know the best places to get autographs and when to do it. Last spring I went to see a Devil Rays game and the security guards told me when most of the starting players would leave the stadium as well as where they would leave, and several other people gave me similar advice at other ballparks.

9. Rack up on free stuff, but be considerate of players and fans, especially kids. If you ask nicely, most players and coaches will gladly toss balls into the stands and even cracked bats during batting practice. Some teams won’t have tons of fans begging for autographs, cracked bats, batting gloves, baseballs and anything else they can think of, but there are plenty of teams with rabid fans that will mob players and try to get anything they can from them. Treat the players with respect and don’t demand things from them. Use your manners and say “please” and “thank you” when they sign for you, and if they happen to give a ball or batting glove away, don’t knock people over trying to get it. While at a Yankees morning practice last year, Alex Rodriguez threw a batting glove at a small crowd of fans and it landed on the top of a 6 foot tall fence just in front of me. While part of me wanted to lunge forward and grab it before anyone else could, I knew that the 10 or 12 kids in front of me would be much more excited to take it home and it would be a lifelong memory for them, so I stood back while they climbed the fence and snagged a sweet souvenir from the soon-to-be Home Run King. Many adults are not so nice, so if you see someone being a little pushy, kindly remind them to grow up.

10. Enjoy Spring Training! Between the stress of traveling, mounting expenses, and inevitable disagreements among traveling companions, remember that Spring Training is about basking in the glow of a new season, and appreciating the pure essence of baseball. Don’t take it too seriously and remember that there is always next spring for all those things you weren’t able to experience this time around. Grab a hot dog and your favorite beverage and sit back and relax. Enjoy the sunshine and soak up the memories!

 

2008 Starting Pitching — Jair Jurrjens

Though the off season has been full of big trades and free agent signings, the Braves have mostly steered clear of any major deals. Sure, they let go of Andruw, but that wasn’t a big surprise, and they picked up Glavine, but most fans saw that one coming before the ‘07 season ended. The one transaction that hasn’t received much attention is the Renteria trade involving Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez.

The Renteria trade actually began back in July — maybe sooner — when the Braves were shopping around for starting pitching. They were looking to move Renteira at the time, but pitching was scarce so they ultimately had to focus on offense. When Mark Teixeira became available it seemed like it was time to make a big move despite the fact that the Braves would be giving up the majority of their top minor league prospects. A lot of fans moaned and complained about trading the future for a shot at a playoff run, but in retrospect Schuerholz and company knew exactly what they were doing. Neither Elvis Andrus nor Jarrod Saltalamacchia were headed for super stardom and neither one will ever approach the offensive capacity of Teixeira, and with Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann around, both Andrus and Salty became very expendable. The Braves also included some young pitching in the deal, but they didn’t give up anyone that would make a significant impact in the next several years.

Knowing that they would soon be dealing Renteria, Braves management no doubt spent plenty of time scouting around for replacement prospects and found two that they liked in Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. The Tigers, who had a hole at shortstop and a deep farm system, were more than willing to make a trade happen. All in all, the Braves traded Renteria and a few above average prospects and got Mark Teixeira and two above average prospects in return. That’s a pretty nice deal if you ask me, especially when you consider the fact that the Braves got Renteria for Andy Marte (what went wrong with him?), and the Red Sox paid a nice chunk of Renteria’s contract during his time in Atlanta. Not bad…not bad at all.

Anyways, most fans really didn’t pay much attention to the Renteria deal and it really didn’t get much attention from the media either. It was a classic Braves transaction involving an aging veteran coming off of a career year and some unknown but very talented and undervalued prospects that few fans had ever heard of. Without getting too involved in the details, Gorkys Hernandez is widely regarded as a solid top 100 prospect in baseball and has put up some very solid numbers in the minors, but he was overshadowed in the Tigers farm system by Cameron Maybin. I’ll write more about him later, but he’ll be a great addition to the club in a couple of years and should be a great replacement following the loss of Elvis Andrus.

Jair Jurrjens was another overlooked prospect in the Tigers farm system who was playing in the shadow of Andrew Miller, but Jurrjens had a nice combination of solid strikeout rates and a good groundball percentage, something that recent Braves pitching prospects have been lacking. The great Braves teams of the ’90s relied heavily on ground ball, finesse type pitchers like Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, so I was happy to see that Jurrjens would be battling for a spot in the rotation this spring. At 6′1″ and 160 pounds he’s not a big, overpowering pitcher, but he keeps his walk totals low, has good control and is an intelligent pitcher on the mound. Jurrjens doesn’t consider himself to be a finesse pitcher, but feels that he falls somewhere in between finesse and power pitching. He throws 4 pitches, including a four seam fastball, a two seam fastball, a change up, and a slurve, and he also speaks 4 languages including English, Spanish, Dutch, and Papiamentu, a language spoken in his home of Curacao, also home of former Atlanta Brave Andruw Jones. Jurrjens began pitching professionally with the Tigers at the age of 17, and through 5 years in the minors he has maintained a 7.24 K/9 rate with 2.17 BB/9 and a ground ball percentage of just under 51%. To give you an idea of where that puts him developmentally, here are a few comparable pitchers that have seen time in the majors recently:

That’s some decent company for a young pitcher to be in, and I think Jurrjens matches up pretty well with all of them. Duke, of course has had some struggles recently, but I think he’ll rebound and have several more years of productive pitching before his career is over. It’s worth noting that Tom Glavine carried a 7.13 K/9 rate along with a BB/9 of 4 and a gound ball rate of 49% in the minors, so if Jurrjens can manage to talk Glavine into sharing some off his secrets, then Jurrjens could possibly be one of the next great Atlanta pitchers. If we use Jurrjens’ comparable players to project his 2008 stats (assuming he makes the major league team at some point, which I’m almost certain he will), we get some decent numbers:

Sheets and Willis are pretty consistent, but Duke just had a monster debut and kind of messes up the projection. However, given Dukes recent ERA surge, I think it’s safe to say that an ERA in the 4.50 area is very reasonable, and a projection of about 100 innings pitched sounds pretty good. Obviously, depending on how Mike Hampton does coming off of a 2 year DL stint and how much the Braves can rely on several other young pitchers, Jurrjens could see anywhere from 50 innings to 150 innings with the major league club. Regardless of the number of innings we see out of Jurrjens, a 4.50 ERA would be better than the 5.76 and 6.22 posted by Kyle Davis and Jo Jo Reyes respectively in 2007. Chuck James held an ERA of 4.24 over 161 IP last season, and he walked away with 11 wins and 10 losses in 30 starts, so I would guess that a stat line for Jurrjens in 2008 would look something like 100 IP, 4.50 ERA and 8 wins to 6 losses. Over the next few years that ERA will sneak down below 4.00 and Jurrjens will likely have a few 15+ win seasons before the age of 30.

So that’s my take on Jair Jurrjens. I think the Braves got a pretty good deal in the Renteria trade, and Jurrjens should make for a solid #3 starter by the end of next year and maybe even a #2 or #1 started in the next 5 years. I don’t think he’s got Hall of Fame stuff or anything, but in a time when pitching is at a premium, I’m glad to see the Braves get a solid young arm in the rotation.